## Verdict Badge — HOLD (64/100)

## Project Context
Wormhole is a cross-chain messaging protocol designed to facilitate secure and efficient transfers of assets and data across multiple blockchains, standing out in the crypto ecosystem for its decentralized guardian network that enhances interoperability and reduces reliance on centralized bridges.

## Snapshot
Based on current market data showing a strong 30-day price increase of 36.42% amid a market cap rank of 210 and decent trading volume, Wormhole exhibits short-term resilience with positive 24-hour momentum, though the 7-day dip of -6.55% suggests caution. Observable data patterns indicate potential for moderate upside from current liquidity and volume trends, but high dilution risk from the large total supply tempers aggressive positioning in the 2-4 week horizon.

## Scoreboard

**Project Fundamentals**
- Weight (Wt): 0.25
- Score: 75
- 1-line takeaway: Strong interoperability focus with efficient tokenomics supporting cross-chain utility, evidenced by sustained market cap despite supply dynamics.
---

**Market Landscape**
- Weight (Wt): 0.20
- Score: 70
- 1-line takeaway: Solid positioning at rank 210 with good liquidity from $29M daily volume, though sector volatility impacts competitive edge.
---

**Technical Signals**
- Weight (Wt): 0.18
- Score: 65
- 1-line takeaway: Recent 30-day uptrend with 24-hour gains, but 7-day decline signals weakening momentum near key support levels.
---

**On-Chain Data**
- Weight (Wt): 0.15
- Score: 68
- 1-line takeaway: Inferred network activity from volume trends shows steady transaction interest, with price stability above recent lows.
---

**Social Data**
- Weight (Wt): 0.12
- Score: 60
- 1-line takeaway: Moderate sentiment implied by price recovery, though lack of explosive volume suggests subdued community buzz.
---

**Risk Overview**
- Weight (Wt): 0.10
- Score: 55
- 1-line takeaway: High dilution from uncapped supply and market volatility pose downside risks, offset partially by current uptrends.
---

## Detailed Analysis
   
**Project Fundamentals**
- **Score**: 75
- **Analysis**: Wormhole's core technology emphasizes secure cross-chain messaging, which supports its value in an interconnected crypto ecosystem, as reflected in its circulating supply dynamics and market cap stability. Tokenomics feature a large total supply of 10B, which could dilute value but also enables broad utility for transfers; recent price resilience suggests effective roadmap execution. Overall, the project's focus on interoperability provides a competitive edge in current market conditions, with data indicating sustained fundamental interest.
---

**Market Landscape**
- **Score**: 70
- **Analysis**: Wormhole holds a mid-tier market cap rank of 210 with a current valuation of $403M, indicating reasonable positioning amid broader crypto liquidity. Daily trading volume of $29M supports decent market depth, suggesting institutional or retail interest in its interoperability niche, though the fully diluted valuation of $860M highlights potential overhang. Sector performance trends, inferred from the 30-day price surge, show Wormhole outperforming in recovery, but competition in cross-chain solutions requires monitoring for sustained dynamics.
---

**Technical Signals**
- **Score**: 65
- **Analysis**: Price action shows a positive 24-hour change of +1.94% with the current price at $0.08598, building on a 30-day gain of 36.42%, but the 7-day drop of -6.55% indicates fading momentum and potential consolidation. Key support is near the 24-hour low of $0.084341, with resistance at $0.08798; momentum indicators suggest a neutral to bullish setup if volume sustains. Over the 2-4 week horizon, technicals point to possible range-bound trading unless volume spikes break the recent high.
---

**On-Chain Data**
- **Score**: 68
- **Analysis**: Network activity can be inferred from trading volume patterns, with $29M in daily turnover indicating consistent transaction interest and user engagement. The price holding above the recent low of $0.084341, coupled with a 67.40% rise from ATL, suggests growing adoption metrics without sharp declines in activity. Whale movements appear stable based on market cap growth of +2.00% in 24 hours, pointing to balanced token flows in the near term.
---

**Social Data**
- **Score**: 60
- **Analysis**: Community sentiment appears moderately positive, as evidenced by the asset's 30-day price momentum and volume stability, implying ongoing narrative interest in cross-chain utility. Social media buzz is likely tempered, given the 7-day price dip and lack of volume explosion, but developer activity could be inferred from sustained market cap ranking. Overall, narrative momentum remains neutral, with potential for improvement if current uptrends attract more engagement.
---

**Risk Overview**
- **Score**: 55
- **Analysis**: Key risks include high volatility from the 94.79% drop from ATH and dilution pressure from the 10B total supply, which could cap upside in a bearish market shift. Regulatory concerns in cross-chain protocols and competitive threats from similar projects add uncertainty, while macroeconomic factors like sector-wide dips (seen in the 7-day trend) heighten downside potential. Current data shows some mitigation through volume support, but overall vulnerability remains elevated.
---

## Short-Term Trade Plan (2-4 Week Horizon)
- **Investment Thesis**: Hold position due to observed 30-day price strength and volume stability indicating potential recovery in cross-chain demand, though 7-day weakness suggests limited aggressive upside without new momentum drivers.
- **Entry Strategy**: For existing holders, maintain current allocation without adding; new entries could average in on dips below $0.085 if volume rebounds above $30M daily to confirm support.
- **Target Price Range**: $0.090 - $0.095, based on extending the 24-hour high and 30-day trend momentum.
- **Risk Management**: Limit position to 2-3% of portfolio to manage volatility; set stop-loss at $0.082 (below 24-hour low for a 4-5% buffer from current price), with maximum drawdown tolerance of 10% to preserve capital.
- **Key Catalysts**: Sustained daily volume above $30M signaling increased network activity; breakout above $0.088 resistance from current price action; continued positive 24-hour trends extending the 30-day uptrend pattern.
- **Exit Strategy**: Take partial profits at $0.092 (near upper target for 7% gain) and full exit at $0.095; trigger stop-loss sell at $0.082 if breached, or exit if 7-day momentum turns further negative below -10%.